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Afghanistan's surprising win over Australia has made Group 1 of the Super Eight stage in the men's T20 World Cup 2024 wide open. Here's an overview of the qualification scenarios based on the possible outcomes of the remaining two matches.

If India and Bangladesh win

India will lead the group with six points, while the other three teams will each have two points. In this scenario, Net Run Rate (NRR) will determine the second team to qualify. Australia, with an NRR of 0.223, is currently in the best position among the three.

For Afghanistan's NRR to surpass Australia's, Australia would need to lose by 31 runs, even if Afghanistan loses by just one run. Bangladesh needs to win by 31 runs to have a better NRR than Afghanistan, and additionally, Australia must lose by at least 55 runs for Bangladesh to finish second in the group.

If Australia and Afghanistan win

Three teams will end up with four points each. If Australia wins by a single run, Afghanistan will need to defeat Bangladesh by a margin of 36 runs to surpass Australia in net run rate. If Australia wins by chasing the target on the last ball, Afghanistan must win their match within 15.4 overs or less (assuming a first-innings score of 160).

India, with a strong NRR of 2.425, is in a secure position. For India to be eliminated, both Australia and Afghanistan need significant victories. Specifically, Australia must beat India by 41 runs to surpass their NRR, and Afghanistan must defeat Bangladesh by at least 83 runs.

If Australia and Bangladesh win

India and Australia will qualify for the semi-finals with four points, while Afghanistan and Bangladesh will finish on two.

If India and Afghanistan win

India and Afghanistan will qualify for the semi-finals with six and four points.